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Los Gatos Analyst Predicts Chip Shortage in Wake of Japan Earthquake

The world's flash and computer memory chips could decrease if Japan tech companies shut down after earthquake.

 

Making the rounds is a map produced by Los Gatos resident Jim Handy that shows semiconductor plants in Japan that have stopped operations or could shut down after the 8.9-magnitude earthquake.

Using the map, the semiconductor research analyst warns that since 40 percent of the world's NAND (a type of flash memory) and roughly 15 percent of the world's DRAM (dynamic random access memory) are manufactured in Japan, chip production could drastically decrease, thus increasing prices for electronics and computers.

"Japan is a significant source of chips to support consumer electronics devices," Handy said. "A two-week shutdown would remove from production a sizable share of each of these. It doesn't take a large production decrease to cause prices to increase dramatically."

The map and predictions are being posted on nationwide media, running in The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Investors.com, ComputerWorld.com and MarketWatch.com, among others. The map shows 42 Japanese manufacturing plans, owned by companies such as Fujitsu and Toshiba, and their locations near the epicenter of the earthquake that swallowed cities and farmland off the coast of Japan's main island, Honshu.

Handy is director of Los Gatos-based Objective Analysis and advises people who buy and sell semi-conductors. He also works with investors to help them understand which companies have chances of failing and succeeding in semiconductor industry.  

"This is a big problem," Handy said, explaining that NAND flash memory is used to store songs, pictures and video in electronic devices, such as digital cameras, music players, personal video players and smart phones.

Handy said Toshiba and SanDisk have issued statements saying that their plants have shut down, even though they're distant from the earthquake's epicenter north of Tokyo.

"If plants aren't able to come back properly, there's going to be shortage," he said. 

Objective Analysis is contacting many of the companies featured on the map to check on their status, but the earthquake is so large that it might be several days before its impact can be fully comprehended, Handy added.

Calls seeking comment to Gartner Inc., the world's leading information technology research and advisory company, weren't immediately returned by the time of this posting.

How do you think the Japan earthquake is going to affect local semiconductor companies? Tell us in the comments.

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